The Legislative Elections of February 9th, 2020, the Electoral Defeat of the Ruling Party (CPDM) and the Return to Power of the Opposition (NUDP): An Analysis of an Electoral Instability in Cameroon

This article analyzes the determinants of electoral instability in Cameroon, the case of the February 20th, 2020 legislative elections in the Vina division in the Adamawa Region. Cameroon is committed to implementing the democratic process through the organization of regular (pluralist) elections with varying fortunes throughout the country, with the exception of the South-West and North-West regions. In this context, the Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement (CPDM), after three terms in office (2002/2007; 2007/2013; 2013/2020), was defeated by the opposition party the National Union for Democracy and Progress (NUDP) in the legislative elections. After winning the first-generation multiparty elections in 1992/1997 and 1997/2002, the NUDP was in political eclipse for three legislative terms. An analysis of the evolution of electoral structures over several elections reveals variations in electoral preferences. From one election to another, the distribution of votes oscillated between two major parties (CPDM and NUDP). Drawing from rational and deterministic choice theories and on empirical data collected in the field, this contribution aims, contrary to the dominant explanatory models that favour a divided approach to voting (identity-based voting on the one hand and rational voting on the other), to explain electoral instability, using a hybrid explanatory model that combines rational and deterministic theories.

Keywords: Community Voting, Electoral Instability, Investiture, Primary, Rational Voting, Vina Division (Cameroon).